Escalation of Commitment
Investing more in a failing choice to prove you were right
What is it?
Escalation of commitment is the tendency to put new resources into a course of action that is going badly, because you are the one who chose it. It is close to the sunk cost fallacy, but the engine is different: less the pull of what has been spent than the need to justify a decision you are responsible for. In a classic experiment by Barry Staw, people who had personally made an investment decision that went wrong then allocated more new funds to it than people who had not made that first call. Each fresh setback becomes a reason to double down, since stopping would mean admitting the original choice was a mistake. It bites in hiring, product bets, renovations and relationships you publicly championed. It tends to get worse when your reputation is tied to the decision, when you must answer to others, and when the next investment is framed as the one that will turn things around.
Example
Approving another budget increase for the project you pitched to the board, even as the numbers keep slipping. Paying for more coaching for a hire you fought for, instead of admitting the fit is wrong. Pouring more money into repairs on the car you insisted on buying.
References
Staw, B. M. (1976). Knee-Deep in the Big Muddy: A Study of Escalating Commitment to a Chosen Course of Action. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 16(1), 27-44.
Staw, B. M. (1981). The Escalation of Commitment to a Course of Action. Academy of Management Review, 6(4), 577-587.
Brockner, J. (1992). The Escalation of Commitment to a Failing Course of Action: Toward Theoretical Progress. Academy of Management Review, 17(1), 39-61.
How to Prevent It
Doxa uses AI and can make mistakes. How it's built
Would I put new money into this if someone else had started it?
Am I trying to fix the situation, or to prove my first call was right?
What would it cost me personally to admit this is not working?
Is this next investment different from the last one I said would fix it?
Who am I trying to convince by continuing?
Hand the go/no-go decision on new funding to someone who did not make the original choice.
Before adding resources, write down what result would make you stop.
Cap further investment in advance and treat the cap as binding.
Separate your evaluation from your reputation: judge the plan, not your past decision.
Make stopping a legitimate, blame-free outcome in your team or household.
Related Decisions
Cancelling or pivoting a project
May pour in more resources to prove the project was right
Making a major business investment
May keep funding a deal because you publicly backed it
Responding to a crisis
May keep doubling down on a first response that isn't working